Flood Prediction

To improve flood risk management, EVO is developing an integrated suite of data holdings, modelling and visualisation tools that will allow improvements in flood predictions and lead to more effective means of reducing flood risk, for example through flood preparedness.

Wide stakeholder consultation has indicated the need to offer a dynamic flood timeline tool to facilitate data access to flooding scenarios at different time scales, including:

  • The Holocene, to allow improved assessments of the importance and temporal context of long term flood events, e.g. to calculate 1000 year return year events and the importance of land use change, such as forest clearance for agriculture.
  • The instrumental record, to view recent gauged short term historical flooding to understand short term return events.
  • Live data streams, to act as early warning systems using a combination of live data, e.g. webcams, river flow gauges and rain fall data.
  • Future flood predictions, based on flood modelling forecasts, e.g. different climate change scenarios. Under one ‘virtual roof’, the EVO’s portal could provide diverse users with unique flooding insights into the past, present and future.

To complement this flood management timeline, an integrated suite of flood analysis tools is also proposed. This offers options for uncertainty analysis, the ability to use a wide range of flood models, e.g. from TOPMODEL to Caesar-Lisflood, as well as a unique flood preparedness visualisation tool (e.g. viewing ‘before’ and ‘after’ intervention scenarios) and an integrated suite of Vulnerability Impact Analysis methods.

As the EVO is being developed to stream diverse data holdings as well as offer an integrated set of modelling, analysis and visualisation tools within the EVO Portal, this novel platform aims to improve flood risk management for a variety of stakeholders, including resource managers, the insurance industry and citizens.